By Stanley Nwosu
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!The alarming decline in voter turnout in Nigerian elections has reignited discussions recently among lawmakers in the House of Representatives, leading to a proposal for compulsory voting. This bill, jointly sponsored by the Speaker, Rt. Hon. Dr. Tajudeen Abbas, and Hon. Daniel Asama Ago, a lawmaker from Plateau State, aims to amend the relevant provisions of the 2022 Electoral Act to make voting mandatory for all eligible citizens. While the intention is to boost electoral participation, this solution may be misguided. Instead of enforcing compulsory voting, Nigeria urgently needs a comprehensive and reliable Population and Housing Census to address the root causes of voter apathy.
Electoral democracy thrives on the participation of a significant portion of the population. High voter turnout not only legitimizes elected officials but also reflects public trust in the electoral system. Unfortunately, various factors—including electoral violence, insecurity, malpractice, judicial subversion of the people’s will, and general distrust in the electoral commission—have contributed to a worrying trend of voter apathy. However, one crucial aspect has been largely overlooked: the absence of recent census data. This data is essential for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to effectively expand voter access to polling units and enhance the credibility of the voter register.
Over the years, population growth, demographic shifts, and the establishment of new settlements have led to increased population at polling units (PUs), resulting in overcrowding during elections, which fosters delays, disruptions, and apathy. A longstanding challenge in the electoral process is the adequacy of the number and locations of PUs across the country. Many voters are reluctant to travel long distances or navigate difficult terrain or endure long queue to cast their votes.
For 26 years, the same number of polling units (119,974), established by the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON) in 1996 to serve about 50 million registered voters, was maintained through the 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019 General Elections, despite the expanding number of registered voters.
In June 2021, INEC finally addressed the issue of expanding voter access to polling units by converting 56,872 Voting Points and Voting Point Settlements into full-fledged Polling Units. This increased the total to 176,846 and reduced the average number of voters per polling unit from 700 in the 2019 General Election to 529 for the 2023 General Election. However, the lack of recent census data still hampers the effective and balanced distribution of these units, with 20,688 polling units still serving at least 1,000 voters each, with some exceeding 4,000. Conversely, 362 polling units have no voters at all.
Some stakeholders have also, attributed declining voter turnout to an inflated voter register, calling for INEC to strengthen its collaboration with the National Population Commission (NPC) and the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) to identify and remove deceased voters and multiple registrants. Also, many registered voters have relocated outside the country, thereby contributing to the low turnout figures. The integrity of the voter register would have been tested in the recent recall process of Senator Natasha Akpoti-Udughan if the petition had met the requirements of Section 69(a) of the Constitution. It would have been telling to see how over 50% of the 474,554 registered voters in Kogi Central Senatorial District would physically appear for verification. The successful verification of these registered voters using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) would have provided insight into the credibility of the voter register.
The paradox of increasing registered voters coinciding with declining turnout is striking. In 2003, with 60.8 million registered voters, the turnout was 69.08%. By 2007, the number of registered voters rose to 61.5 million, but turnout plummeted to 57.49%. In 2011, registered voters grew to 73.5 million, yet turnout declined to 53.68%. By 2015, the number was 67.4 million with a turnout of just 43.65%. In 2019, despite 84 million registered voters, turnout dropped to 35.66%. By 2023, with 93.5 million registered voters, turnout fell to a mere 27.05%—the lowest ever. This trend raises critical questions about the integrity of the voter register and the effectiveness of measures to engage citizens in the electoral process.
INEC on its part has made efforts to clean up the voter register, but issues with official death records complicate the removal of deceased registrants. Recently, 7,746 deceased voters were removed, and about 2,780,756 invalid registrations were eliminated through the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS). Nevertheless, these deletions are insufficient to reflect the true number of registered voters.
A significant issue is that Nigerians often do not report the deaths of loved ones, unless required for inheritance claims. Despite the digitalization of the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (e-CRVS) system by the NPC, death registration remains low compared to the rapid increase in birth registration.
To rectify these issues, a thorough biometric census is essential. Such a census would provide accurate, verifiable, and up-to-date data on Nigeria’s population, including geographic distribution and demographics. This information is vital for enhancing the integrity of the voter register, improving polling unit accessibility, and facilitating effective election planning. Importantly, it would enable INEC to identify and remove deceased registrants and duplicate entries, addressing major concerns about the voter register’s credibility.
The upcoming biometric Population and Housing Census presents a unique opportunity to create a digital National Population Register. This register would strengthen the e-CRVS system and integrate biometric data from various agencies to streamline the identification of deceased registrants, ensuring accurate sharing of official death records with INEC, thus allowing for the removal of deceased voters from the register.
The forthcoming census will also generate accurate data on Nigeria’s voting-age population, essential for guiding INEC in Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) and voter mobilization efforts. The census can also incorporate Voter Identification Numbers (VIN) into its processes to generate reliable number of registered voters.
Political parties require census data to better understand population distribution and characteristics, which will help them strategize and focus on target areas during campaigns, ultimately increasing voter participation.
Proponents of compulsory voting often cite countries like Australia, Luxembourg, Brazil, Uruguay, New Zealand, and Belgium, where such laws have been implemented. However, these nations have successfully increased voter turnout through comprehensive electoral reforms and public engagement, not merely by enforcing mandatory voting. In contrast, Nigeria should focus on addressing the fundamental issues of voter apathy through effective data collection and analysis. Enforcing compulsory voting without tackling these foundational issues could lead to further disenfranchisement. It is even difficult to enforce voter compliance when we do not have reliable and current data of the voting-age population.
Countries without compulsory voting laws, such as the USA, India, Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya, consistently demonstrate high voter turnout. For example, the USA recorded 65.3% turnout in the 2024 Presidential Election, India 67.40% in 2024, Ghana 63.9% in 2024, South Africa 58.6% in 2024, and Kenya 65% in 2022. This underscores that engagement and trust in the electoral process can be cultivated without mandates. Another area of focus to improve voter turnout is to conduct special early voting for election personnel, security agents, and essential workers who have been consistently disenfranchised due to their roles in elections.
The path to enhancing voter turnout in Nigeria lies not in compulsory voting, but in conducting a thorough and credible census. Understanding the true demographics and geography of the electorate is crucial for creating an effective electoral system; otherwise, we risk misrepresenting the true state of voter turnout in Nigeria. By prioritizing data collection and analysis, Nigeria can build a more robust democracy that reflects the will of its people.
*Stanley Onyeka Nwosu, mnipr, is a Communication Strategist, Political Economist, and Development Expert. He writes from Abuja.
