HOW OUTDATED CENSUS DATA UNDERMINES NIGERIA’S DEVELOPMENT

By Stanley Nwosu

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The primary purpose of a population census is to provide evidence-based data for national planning and sustainable development. However, when this data becomes outdated, less reliable, or poorly utilised, it hinders development and exacerbates underdevelopment. Recognizing the importance of population census data to national development, the framers of Nigeria’s Constitution positioned it at the center of the political economy as a basis for determining which State gets what, be it allocation of national resources, delineation of electoral constituencies and apportionment of legislative seats. The goal is to ensure equitable distribution of national resources and fair political representation across the country.

However, despite the fact that population census figures determine the amount of federal allocation a state receives and the number of legislative seats it gets at the Federal House of Representatives and State Houses of Assembly, the conduct of the census exercise in Nigeria has been irregular. The United Nations recommended that a census should be conducted every five or ten-year interval, depending on the economic capacity of each country. However, in Nigeria, it has been almost 20 years since the last exercise was conducted in 2006. This means that the 2006 Census data has become increasingly obsolete and unreliable for planning purposes, particularly in the face of Nigeria’s rapid population growth and demographic shifts.

Relying on outdated census data has created a faulty basis for national planning, resource allocation, and political representation, causing widespread socio-economic and political problems. For example, the population allocation principle for revenue sharing among states is still based on outdated census figures, which do not reflect the current population distribution across the states. The implication is that currently, based on the population allocation principle, some more populated states receive less revenue than some less populated states, resulting in inequitable sharing of national wealth and uneven development.

Also, the existing constituencies and legislative seats in both federal and state constituencies in Nigeria do not accurately represent current population dynamics. The implication is that the situation has created uneven constituencies and unequal representation in the country. For instance, a federal constituency in a densely populated Lagos may have one million constituents, while one in a less populated state may have just 300,000. This means that when constituency projects are evenly distributed among all House of Representatives members, the legislator from the Lagos federal constituency has 1 million constituents to cater for, with the same amount that the legislator from a less populated federal constituency received to cater for just 300,000 constituents. This disparity leads to uneven empowerment and development across the country, undermining the constitutional aim of nearly equal population quotas in constituencies. This constituency imbalance and under-representation also extended to the State Houses of Assembly, affecting development at the state constituency level.

Current and accurate census data is essential for effective constituency delimitation, hence why the 1999 constitution mandates the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to revise and alter constituencies at intervals of not less than ten years or after a national census. This provision aligns with the UN recommendation for decennial censuses, ensuring that accurate population data informs the delimitation exercise.

The negative effects of outdated census data extend to other sectors of the economy. If the government lacks precise information about the population size and demographics, how can it effectively plan for its citizens or assess the impacts of its policies? Without current and reliable census data, it will be difficult to accurately determine the number of out-of-school children, unemployed citizens or vulnerable population in Nigeria. This lack of clarity hampers the government’s ability to track the success of educational initiatives, employment programmes, or poverty alleviation efforts. We cannot continue to rely on estimates and foreign sources for planning.

Without accurate census data, policymakers cannot correctly identify which areas are most in need of investment. This leads to the misallocation of funds for essential infrastructure like schools, hospitals, and roads. Some areas may end up with vacant facilities while others remain critically underserved.

Past national development plans in Nigeria have underperformed partly due to the lack of reliable demographic data. Without a true understanding of the population’s size, distribution, and characteristics, policies cannot be effectively tailored to national needs.

The unreliability of census data directly undermines the distribution of social welfare packages and poverty alleviation programmes. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the lack of reliable population data hampered efforts to distribute palliatives to the target population. The same story applies to other intervention programmes.

When a country relies on old or unreliable data, it fails to account for critical population changes, such as internal migration, urbanization, and rapid population growth. This leaves governments unable to provide services where they are most needed.

Furthermore, without accurate and current population census data, it will be difficult to determine the coverage of administrative data. Take, for example, the National Identification Number (NIN) and birth registration. How can we ascertain the percentage coverage of Nigerians who have been enrolled or registered without knowing the actual total population figures? We must first ascertain the total population to identify those not accounted for; otherwise, efforts are akin to “grappling in the dark.”

There is no doubt that census data is crucial for planning, development and good governance as it provides valuable insights and a comprehensive understanding of the population that enables policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions and promote inclusive and sustainable development.

It is high time we conducted another census to obtain reliable, verifiable, and up-to-date data for informed planning and policymaking. The upcoming Population and Housing Census, which will be a digital and biometric-based exercise, will certainly lay a solid foundation for evidence-based national planning and the implementation of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.